Slumping Braves second baseman Dan Uggla was given an unexpected day off. Atlanta manager Fredi Gonzalez made the announcement Tuesday before Atlanta played the San Diego Padres. Uggla and Gonzalez had a conversation before the game. "Anytime I'm out of the lineup," Uggla said, "it's not my idea." Uggla, who signed a five-year, $62 million contract after the Braves...
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Three offseasons ago, everyone knew that the Yankees were going to make a major run at CC Sabathia. The rest of their starting pitching plans were a little unclear, but it seemed like a safe bet that they were going to pursue another free agent starter. They ultimately landed A.J. Burnett, but the other candidate [...] Post from: River Ave. Blues A New York Yankees blog Scouting The Trade Market:...
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Source: http://wik.io/info/US/269079131
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COOPERSTOWN, NY ? Ken Gallinger has visited the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum regularly for the past 20 years. But when the Ormstown, Quebec, resident entered the Museum at 3:48 p.m. on Friday, his annual trip to Cooperstown became a part of Hall of Fame history.
Gallinger became the Museum's 15 millionth visitor since the Museum first opened its doors on June 12, 1939, when he entered with his Museum Membership card in hand, just days before the Museum's 72nd birthday.
"I was a little worried when I first came in and saw the folks waiting for me," Gallinger said. "I thought maybe I left my headlights on or something. But ? Wow! ? this is really cool."
Gallinger was greeted by Hall of Fame officials, including President Jeff Idelson, who presented him with a Membership upgrade to the President's Circle level. As a President's Circle Member, Gallinger will receive two tickets to the premium seating area for the July 24 Hall of Fame Induction. The longtime Toronto Blue Jays fan will be able to watch former Jays star Roberto Alomar and former Toronto general manager Pat Gillick receive their Hall of Fame plaques along with Bert Blyleven, the third member of the Class of 2011 at the Hall of Fame.
"My favorite player was Dave Stieb, but I'll always remember my first trip to the Hall of Fame for another Canadian team, the Montreal Expos," Gallinger said. "My first trip to the Museum was (July 28, 1991) ? the day Dennis Martinez of the Expos threw a perfect game. Obviously, you never forget something like that."
Gallinger visited the Museum on Friday with friends Marc Brindle of Mercier, Quebec; Nick Ross of Ormstown and Robert Mahon of Long Sault, Ontario ? which is located just over the Canadian border from New York State near Cornwall, Ontario. Gallinger is a native of Long Sault.
Dressed in a Jays pullover and fresh off a round of golf in Cooperstown, Gallinger was already making plans for his return trip to Cooperstown.
"We used to come to the Hall of Fame every year on Opening Day, but now we come a little later so we can play golf too," Gallinger said. "This is the best Museum in the world."
Gallinger is the first visitor from Canada to become a "millionth" visitor to the Hall of Fame. The complete list of millionth visitors includes:
MILLIONTH VISITORS
MILLIONTH DATE NAME HOME
one...............06/29/56.....John H. Morrissey.............. Bronxville, NY
two...............06/15/63.....Robert Wilson.................... Schenectady, NY
three............06/28/69......Arthur Greenwood............. Chelmsford, MA
four..............08/20/73.....Robert Buraczewski........... Dickson City, PA
five..............10/21/77......Elaine Parachini................. Silver Spring, MD
six...............09/18/82......Ann Hall............................ Wallingford, CT
seven..........07/08/87......John Rourke....................... Gloversville, NY
eight............06/22/90......Alan Agins......................... Westerly, RI
nine............10/09/92.......Dave Halsey, II.................. Mattydale, NY
ten..............08/09/95.......Brett Hornby...................... Glen Ridge, NJ
eleven........10/05/98.......James Mitchell................... Ellenwood, GA
twelve........08/14/01.......Bobby Duley...................... Cape Elizabeth, MA
thirteen......08/17/04.......Gail Millar.......................... Silver Spring, MD
fourteen....08/17/07........Lauren Kohout................... Gloucester Township, NJ
fifteen.......05/13/11.........Ken Gallinger..................... Ormstown, Quebec, Canada
The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum is open seven days a week year round, with the exception of Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's Day. The Museum observes regular hours of 9 a.m. until 5 p.m. from Labor Day until Memorial Day Weekend. From Memorial Day through the day before Labor Day, the Museum is open from 9 a.m. until 9 p.m. seven days a week. Ticket prices are $19.50 for adults (13 and over), $12 for seniors (65 and over) and for those holding current memberships in the VFW, Disabled American Veterans, American Legion and AMVets organizations, and $7 for juniors (ages 7-12). Members are always admitted free of charge and there is no charge for children 6 years of age or younger. For more information, visit our Web site at baseballhall.org or call 888-HALL-OF-FAME (888-425-5633) or 607-547-7200.
Source: http://baseballhall.org/news/museum-news/hall-fame-welcomes-15-millionth-visitor
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Jo-Jo Reyes won for the first time in 29 starts by throwing his first career complete game and Jayson Nix hit a two-run home run to lead the Toronto Blue Jays to an 11-1 rout of the Cleveland Indians on Monday night.Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310530114&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines
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During this weekend's Boston-Minnesota series there was another Joe West kerfuffle and the play-by-play guys brought up Joe West's history with Boston. They mentioned West's comments last year that he did not like the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankee style of play, particularly those teams' long games. Setting aside one's own opinion game length and how appropriate it is for an umpire to criticize particular teams, I am sure that umpires — like everyone else — notice when games drag on. But unlike everyone else they are in a unique position to do something about it. So based on West's comments I wondered whether umpires expand the strike zone during long games to speed things along.
To look at this I used the, conveniently time-stamped, pitchf/x data. I collected all pitches made in the sixth through eighth innings and the looked at how long into the game each was made. For example, the average pitch in the sixth inning was made 1 hour and 48 minutes after the start of the game. Then I formed two subsets of these pitches, those in the top 5% of length for their half inning, and those in the bottom 5% of length for their half inning. For example the 'long' group included pitches from the bottom of the eighth inning that were thrown 3 hours and 14 minutes or more after the game started. Pitches from the bottom of the eighth inning were included in the 'short' group if they were thrown before 2 hours and 1 minute since the game started. And similarly for other half innings. The top and bottom of the inning were done separately so that pitches from the top of innings didn't over represent in the 'short' group and bottom of the inning pitches in the 'long' group.
So these pitches come from situations where the game has already gone on for a very long or short time when they were thrown. Now we are interested in how the strike zone was called on these two groups. Unfortunately there might already be a sampling bias in the data. 'Long' games might have umps with smaller strike zones, that being why the game has gone on so long. So a more clever WOWY approach would be preferential, but I couldn't come up with one.
With that limitation in mind let's see how the strike zones of the two groups compared. To first see how the top and bottom of the zone were called I considered taken pitches that were clearly in the zone horizontally ( -0.5 > px < 0.5), and looked at their called strike rate by normalized pitch height.
Effectively no difference. The top and bottom of the zone were called at close to the same spot for both samples of pitches (and very close to sz_bot and sz_top, showing that the stringers do a pretty good job with these values).
Turning to the horizontal zone I similarly looked at pitches that were clearly in the zone vertically (pz in the middle half of the interval between sz_top and
Again there is almost no difference. And if anything there is a very slight difference on the right edge of the zone (from the umpire's perspective), with the 'long' zone slightly smaller. The opposite effect if the umpire was trying speed the game up. Although the difference is tiny.
So overall, at least by this methodology, there is no difference in how the zone is called in long versus short games. If the umpires are annoyed by having to call a game going into its third hour in the seventh inning they don't seem to let it affect their strike zone. Score one for the boys in blue.
Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/05/does_the_ump_ca.php
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Sometimes it just all goes wrong. You could say that was the story of the 2010 Red Sox. They suffered injuries all over the roster. Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, Josh Beckett, you name the Red Sox player and it's likely they missed a chunk of time. John Lackey also fell short of expectations, Jonathan Papelbon imploded down the stretch, and the end result was a 3rd place finish.
But then again, what about the MVP season Adrian Beltre put up? And didn't Clay Buchholz somehow post a 2.33 ERA? Jon Lester had another Cy Young caliber season. Jed Lowrie posted a better OPS+ than Troy Tulowitzki in limited time. You get the point. There were bright spots for the Red Sox, and it's how they managed to win 89 games.
For the Cubs, things went south quickly. They started terribly out of the gate, and a short-tempered Lou Piniella, on his last managerial legs, reacted poorly. He mishandled Carlos Zambrano, whose awful April and delicate temperament seemed to overwhelm Piniella. Inexplicably, Piniella actually played Koyie Hill regularly while one of the game's best hitting catchers sat on the bench. In an unceremonious end to his career, Pinella quit over the summer when the Cubs were 51-74.
It wasn't just Piniella's fault, of course. From 2004 to 2009, Aramis Ramirez hit .303/.368/.551 in over 3,300 plate appearances. In 2010, he hit .241/.294/.452 on the heels of his worst BABIP, .245, since his 21-year old season for the Pirates. Derrek Lee hit .304/.384/.515 from 2007 to 2009 and then fell to .251 /.335/.416 last season for the Cubs. Sure it's probably just one of those things and not attributable to much at all, but the fact that Lee went and hit .287/.384/.465 for the Braves over the last 39 games does little to discredit the notion that there was a corrosiveness surrounding the Cubs in 2010.
There were also the 412 plate appearances of .647 OPS output that Ryan Theriot contributed. Indeed, the most productive Cubs infielder in 2010 was Starlin Castro, an exciting development that bodes well for the North Siders' future. But let's be honest. If a 20-year old shortstop is your best hitting infielder, chances are you're doing it very, very wrong.
On the pitching side, Zambrano notwithstanding, things started out pretty good for the Cubs. The problems arose over the summer. In June and July, they yielded 323 runs over a 55-game stretch. That amounts to 5.87 runs per game, or 951 allowed extrapolated over a full season. No National League team in the last 10 seasons has managed 951 runs. It was a disaster. On the bright side, the Cubs did finish 24-13 under new Manager, Mike Quade, who returns this season.
So what about 2011? Lee is gone and Carlos Pena is in. While it may be a lot to ask of an antsy fan base to grin and bear such a low batting average and a ton of strikeouts, Pena looks poised for a big bounce-back. Dan Szymborski's ZIPS has Lee at .239/.363/.508 with 31 home runs. On the other corner, Ramirez is another great candidate to return to form. At second, Theriot's out of the picture and while Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker might not amount to much, Theriot gone, and playing for the rival Cards no less, may well amount to addition by subtraction. Baker has hit .308/.363/.545 in his career against lefties, so Quade may have a tactical lever to pull in order to squeeze a bit more production out of second. At short, Castro's another year older and projects as a star one day. He might not get there this year but you never know when a player of his talent might make that leap. They're not the Phillies, the Red Sox or the Yankees but it should be a productive infield, which is a lot more than the Cubbies could say in 2010.
Behind the plate, Quade's mandate is simple. Play Geovany Soto. Play him as much as possible without risking injury. DH him in the AL parks. It was only nine games but I found this to be one of the very saddest things about the 2010 Cubs. Their pitchers hit .132/.170/.159 last season. In their nine interleague games in AL ballparks, Cubs DH's hit .154/.175/.179. They might as well have stuck with their pitcher. Sorry to get off topic but the point here is straightforward. Play Soto a lot. Play Hill as little as possible.
The outfield of (left to right) Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome returns in place and while it's old and not the most prolific bunch, it's also steady. None of them figures to turn in a stinker of a season provided they can stay healthy. I'm not a big Tyler Colvin fan but he's versatile and fine enough as a fourth option.
On the pitching side, Ryan Dempster returns and Quade has already named him the Opening Day starter. It's a small thing but I like the early announcement for a few reasons. First, it shows that Quade appreciates what Dempster has managed to accomplish over the last few seasons. Since 2008, he ranks 14th in Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement among all Major League pitchers. Rewarding Dempster for that sort of output reflects well on Quade. Second, it takes a hint pressure off of Zambrano and newcomer Matt Garza. Zambrano hasn't always reacted well to the expectations that come with a big paycheck in a media market like Chicago. And, like Zambrano, Garza is a fiery competitor who can feed off of, or be done in by, his emotions. Again, it's not a big deal but it reflects a level of thoughtfulness that was lacking during the Piniella days. The Cubs had a 103 team ERA+ last season, they return four of five starters, swap Garza in for Tom Gorzelanny and have added Kerry Wood to a bullpen that returns key pieces Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall.
If the Cubs fail to make a playoff push this season, it will likely be due to a lack of depth. That's a shame for a club with Chicago's payroll but it's the reality. A Soriano injury means everyday Tyler Colvin. If Pena or Ramirez miss time, does Baker move to a corner infield position? There's not much rotation depth at all, and outside of the top three or four or five options depending on how you feel about live arms Andrew Cashner and Thomas Diamond, the bullpen gets thin quickly.
Nonetheless there's a path to success for the Cubs this season. It's tenuous because of how thin they are, but it's there. With health, more of the same from the pitching staff, above average corner infield production, continued excellence and more playing time for Soto and a leap forward from Castro, the Cubs have the look of a contender. They look even more like one with yesterday's Adam Wainwright news, and if you compare the Cubs' reaction to the news to Cincinnati's, who knows? Karma monitors these things, and maybe the Cubs will find it on their side this year?
Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/02/the_cubs_in_201.php
Source: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031378.php
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During this weekend's Boston-Minnesota series there was another Joe West kerfuffle and the play-by-play guys brought up Joe West's history with Boston. They mentioned West's comments last year that he did not like the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankee style of play, particularly those teams' long games. Setting aside one's own opinion game length and how appropriate it is for an umpire to criticize particular teams, I am sure that umpires — like everyone else — notice when games drag on. But unlike everyone else they are in a unique position to do something about it. So based on West's comments I wondered whether umpires expand the strike zone during long games to speed things along.
To look at this I used the, conveniently time-stamped, pitchf/x data. I collected all pitches made in the sixth through eighth innings and the looked at how long into the game each was made. For example, the average pitch in the sixth inning was made 1 hour and 48 minutes after the start of the game. Then I formed two subsets of these pitches, those in the top 5% of length for their half inning, and those in the bottom 5% of length for their half inning. For example the 'long' group included pitches from the bottom of the eighth inning that were thrown 3 hours and 14 minutes or more after the game started. Pitches from the bottom of the eighth inning were included in the 'short' group if they were thrown before 2 hours and 1 minute since the game started. And similarly for other half innings. The top and bottom of the inning were done separately so that pitches from the top of innings didn't over represent in the 'short' group and bottom of the inning pitches in the 'long' group.
So these pitches come from situations where the game has already gone on for a very long or short time when they were thrown. Now we are interested in how the strike zone was called on these two groups. Unfortunately there might already be a sampling bias in the data. 'Long' games might have umps with smaller strike zones, that being why the game has gone on so long. So a more clever WOWY approach would be preferential, but I couldn't come up with one.
With that limitation in mind let's see how the strike zones of the two groups compared. To first see how the top and bottom of the zone were called I considered taken pitches that were clearly in the zone horizontally ( -0.5 > px < 0.5), and looked at their called strike rate by normalized pitch height.
Effectively no difference. The top and bottom of the zone were called at close to the same spot for both samples of pitches (and very close to sz_bot and sz_top, showing that the stringers do a pretty good job with these values).
Turning to the horizontal zone I similarly looked at pitches that were clearly in the zone vertically (pz in the middle half of the interval between sz_top and
Again there is almost no difference. And if anything there is a very slight difference on the right edge of the zone (from the umpire's perspective), with the 'long' zone slightly smaller. The opposite effect if the umpire was trying speed the game up. Although the difference is tiny.
So overall, at least by this methodology, there is no difference in how the zone is called in long versus short games. If the umpires are annoyed by having to call a game going into its third hour in the seventh inning they don't seem to let it affect their strike zone. Score one for the boys in blue.
Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/05/does_the_ump_ca.php
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Jeremy Hellickson pitched seven impressive innings, John Jaso homered and the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Cleveland Indians 7-0 on Sunday.
Source : Seattle Times
Explore : Cleveland Indians, MLB Games, Sports, Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Indians
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Source: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031382.php
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Chipper Jones says extra innings "stink" so he was anxious to make sure a game already 4 hours long didn't continue. Jones' single in the 12th inning drove in Jordan Schafer to give the Atlanta Braves a 7-6 win over the weary Cincinnati Reds on Saturday night. "It's always good to come through on your last at-bat," said Jones, who was 0 for 4 with a walk before the...
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Sergio Garcia and Ryan Palmer share the lead after two rounds at the Byron Nelson Championship at 8-under 132.
Source : CBS 11 - Dallas / Fort Worth's Sour
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Source: http://wik.io/info/US/268474178
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(Scott) The MInnesota Twins held a public memorial service for Harmon Killebrew at Target Field on Thursday evening. It was a fitting tribute to an incredible athlete and outstanding man. More than 40 members of the Killebrew family were there, including Harmon's widow, Nita Killebrew. Mrs. Killebrew gave an incredibly moving speech in honor of her husband. She radiated love and respect. The...
Source : Power Line
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Source: http://wik.io/info/US/268532623
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Sergio Garcia and Ryan Palmer share the lead after two rounds at the Byron Nelson Championship at 8-under 132.
Source : Seattle Times
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Source: http://wik.io/info/US/268471524
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After the Washington Nationals lost their fifth straight game on Wednesday, Jayson Werth told reporters in Milwaukee "Things need to change."Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=6601373&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines
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Paul Splittorff wasn't really a household name outside of Kansas City -- he didn't get a single vote in his only year on the Hall of Fame ballot in 1990 -- but he left a big mark on the game in two ways.
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Sometimes it just all goes wrong. You could say that was the story of the 2010 Red Sox. They suffered injuries all over the roster. Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron, Josh Beckett, you name the Red Sox player and it's likely they missed a chunk of time. John Lackey also fell short of expectations, Jonathan Papelbon imploded down the stretch, and the end result was a 3rd place finish.
But then again, what about the MVP season Adrian Beltre put up? And didn't Clay Buchholz somehow post a 2.33 ERA? Jon Lester had another Cy Young caliber season. Jed Lowrie posted a better OPS+ than Troy Tulowitzki in limited time. You get the point. There were bright spots for the Red Sox, and it's how they managed to win 89 games.
For the Cubs, things went south quickly. They started terribly out of the gate, and a short-tempered Lou Piniella, on his last managerial legs, reacted poorly. He mishandled Carlos Zambrano, whose awful April and delicate temperament seemed to overwhelm Piniella. Inexplicably, Piniella actually played Koyie Hill regularly while one of the game's best hitting catchers sat on the bench. In an unceremonious end to his career, Pinella quit over the summer when the Cubs were 51-74.
It wasn't just Piniella's fault, of course. From 2004 to 2009, Aramis Ramirez hit .303/.368/.551 in over 3,300 plate appearances. In 2010, he hit .241/.294/.452 on the heels of his worst BABIP, .245, since his 21-year old season for the Pirates. Derrek Lee hit .304/.384/.515 from 2007 to 2009 and then fell to .251 /.335/.416 last season for the Cubs. Sure it's probably just one of those things and not attributable to much at all, but the fact that Lee went and hit .287/.384/.465 for the Braves over the last 39 games does little to discredit the notion that there was a corrosiveness surrounding the Cubs in 2010.
There were also the 412 plate appearances of .647 OPS output that Ryan Theriot contributed. Indeed, the most productive Cubs infielder in 2010 was Starlin Castro, an exciting development that bodes well for the North Siders' future. But let's be honest. If a 20-year old shortstop is your best hitting infielder, chances are you're doing it very, very wrong.
On the pitching side, Zambrano notwithstanding, things started out pretty good for the Cubs. The problems arose over the summer. In June and July, they yielded 323 runs over a 55-game stretch. That amounts to 5.87 runs per game, or 951 allowed extrapolated over a full season. No National League team in the last 10 seasons has managed 951 runs. It was a disaster. On the bright side, the Cubs did finish 24-13 under new Manager, Mike Quade, who returns this season.
So what about 2011? Lee is gone and Carlos Pena is in. While it may be a lot to ask of an antsy fan base to grin and bear such a low batting average and a ton of strikeouts, Pena looks poised for a big bounce-back. Dan Szymborski's ZIPS has Lee at .239/.363/.508 with 31 home runs. On the other corner, Ramirez is another great candidate to return to form. At second, Theriot's out of the picture and while Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker might not amount to much, Theriot gone, and playing for the rival Cards no less, may well amount to addition by subtraction. Baker has hit .308/.363/.545 in his career against lefties, so Quade may have a tactical lever to pull in order to squeeze a bit more production out of second. At short, Castro's another year older and projects as a star one day. He might not get there this year but you never know when a player of his talent might make that leap. They're not the Phillies, the Red Sox or the Yankees but it should be a productive infield, which is a lot more than the Cubbies could say in 2010.
Behind the plate, Quade's mandate is simple. Play Geovany Soto. Play him as much as possible without risking injury. DH him in the AL parks. It was only nine games but I found this to be one of the very saddest things about the 2010 Cubs. Their pitchers hit .132/.170/.159 last season. In their nine interleague games in AL ballparks, Cubs DH's hit .154/.175/.179. They might as well have stuck with their pitcher. Sorry to get off topic but the point here is straightforward. Play Soto a lot. Play Hill as little as possible.
The outfield of (left to right) Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd and Kosuke Fukudome returns in place and while it's old and not the most prolific bunch, it's also steady. None of them figures to turn in a stinker of a season provided they can stay healthy. I'm not a big Tyler Colvin fan but he's versatile and fine enough as a fourth option.
On the pitching side, Ryan Dempster returns and Quade has already named him the Opening Day starter. It's a small thing but I like the early announcement for a few reasons. First, it shows that Quade appreciates what Dempster has managed to accomplish over the last few seasons. Since 2008, he ranks 14th in Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement among all Major League pitchers. Rewarding Dempster for that sort of output reflects well on Quade. Second, it takes a hint pressure off of Zambrano and newcomer Matt Garza. Zambrano hasn't always reacted well to the expectations that come with a big paycheck in a media market like Chicago. And, like Zambrano, Garza is a fiery competitor who can feed off of, or be done in by, his emotions. Again, it's not a big deal but it reflects a level of thoughtfulness that was lacking during the Piniella days. The Cubs had a 103 team ERA+ last season, they return four of five starters, swap Garza in for Tom Gorzelanny and have added Kerry Wood to a bullpen that returns key pieces Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall.
If the Cubs fail to make a playoff push this season, it will likely be due to a lack of depth. That's a shame for a club with Chicago's payroll but it's the reality. A Soriano injury means everyday Tyler Colvin. If Pena or Ramirez miss time, does Baker move to a corner infield position? There's not much rotation depth at all, and outside of the top three or four or five options depending on how you feel about live arms Andrew Cashner and Thomas Diamond, the bullpen gets thin quickly.
Nonetheless there's a path to success for the Cubs this season. It's tenuous because of how thin they are, but it's there. With health, more of the same from the pitching staff, above average corner infield production, continued excellence and more playing time for Soto and a leap forward from Castro, the Cubs have the look of a contender. They look even more like one with yesterday's Adam Wainwright news, and if you compare the Cubs' reaction to the news to Cincinnati's, who knows? Karma monitors these things, and maybe the Cubs will find it on their side this year?
Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/02/the_cubs_in_201.php
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Los Angeles Police Department Chief Charlie Beck provided little new information Thursday on the investigation into the beating of San Francisco Giants fan Bryan Stow, but reaffirmed his belief that the primary suspect was the principal assailant in the beating....
Source : L.A. Now
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Source: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031381.php
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Thanks to the work of Voros McCracken and later Tom Tango, Defense Independent Pitching and Fielding Independent Pitching have become widely accepted in the baseball community as better measurements of pitching effectiveness (and predictability of future results) than earned run average (ERA). DIPS and FIP focus on strikeouts, walks, and home runs — the three primary outcomes that a pitcher controls. Except for perhaps catchers, fielders have no impact on these events.
While SO, BB, and HR play a large part in determining ERA, the latter is also a function of defensive and bullpen support, as well as performance with bases empty vs. runners in scoring position. As a result, the difference between ERA and FIP is almost entirely accounted by strand rate (LOB%*) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Each variable has a coefficient correlation of nearly 80 percent with the delta between ERA and FIP.
* Based on the formula, the strand rate is an estimator of LOB% rather than an actual tally.
When you put the two together (LOB% divided by BABIP), the coefficient correlation jumps to 90 percent. Accordingly, the coefficient of determination or R² is 81 percent. In other words, more than four-fifths of the difference between ERA and FIP is due to LOB% and BABIP. As such, in addition to SO, BB, and HR rates, it makes sense to study LOB% and BABIP to understand why a pitcher's ERA may be better or worse than his FIP.
The MLB averages for LOB% and BABIP have been running at almost exactly 72 percent and .300, respectively, for several years. These percentages held true once again in 2010.
Plotting LOB% on the y-axis and BABIP on the x-axis for all 147 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2010, I created the following graph. As has become customary around these parts, I broke the graph into quadrants via the intersection of the LOB% and BABIP means. The pitchers in the northwest quadrant had high LOB% and low BABIP. Moving clockwise, the pitchers in the northeast quadrant had high LOB% and high BABIP, the hurlers in the southeast quadrant had low LOB% and high BABIP, and those in the southwest quadrant had low LOB% and low BABIP.
The numbers were lifted from FanGraphs in January. The BABIP data was subsequently recalculated, perhaps due to FanGraphs using an incorrect formula initially. While directionally correct, the BABIP used for this graph are generally about .005-.010 higher than those listed on the site now. The LOB% data matches exactly. You can download the spreadsheet with the applicable data here.
As usual, I have identified the outliers in all four quadrants in the graph above. In addition, as shown below, I have created lists of leaders and laggards for both LOB% and BABIP. For perspective, the ranges on LOB% and BABIP were 59.5-82.7 percent and .238-.354, respectively.
Starting with LOB%, I highlighted the six pitchers with strand rates over 80 percent and compared 2010 with their career marks. All but Madison Bumgarner (who pitched just 10 innings prior to last season) have career LOB% that are well below their results in 2010. That said, I found it interesting that the career rates were all above the MLB norm of 72 percent.
Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Brian Duensing, Tim Hudson, and Tommy Hunter all posted career high LOB%. Halladay had only exceeded 75 percent twice before last year.
In addition to sharing high LOB%, the common thread among these pitchers is that they fared better with RISP than with the bases empty.
There were 11 pitchers with strand rates of 65 percent or lower. Excluding John Ely (who was a rookie), all but Luke Hochevar have career LOB% that are well above their results in 2010. Nonetheless, I found it as equally interesting as the observation from the leader board that the career rates were all at or below the MLB norm of 72 percent.
Nate Robertson, Tim Wakefield, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Jeff Francis, and Paul Maholm all posted career low LOB%. Scott Feldman, Jeremy Bonderman, and Tony Pena produced the second-lowest LOB% while Jamie Moyer had the third-lowest since he broke into the majors in 1986.
In addition to sharing low LOB%, the common thread among these pitchers is that they fared worse with RISP than with the bases empty.
Turning to BABIP, I spotlighted the 14 pitchers with averages under .270 and, like LOB%, compared 2010 with their career marks. All of these starters (including Armando Galarraga who actually posted a .261 BABIP based on FanGraphs' revised calculations) have career BABIP that are above their results in 2010. Of note, the career rates were all below the MLB norm of .300.
Matt Cain has never had a league-average BABIP and, in fact, has not exceeded the .278 he allowed in 2007.
Hudson and Hunter appear on the most favorable LOB% and BABIP lists. Moyer, on the other hand, was the only pitcher to appear on a leader and laggard board.
There were 16 pitchers with BABIP higher than .330. All of these pitchers have career BABIP that are below their results in 2010. In five cases, the career marks are slightly below the MLB norm of .300. The balance are all higher.
Maholm and Feldman appear on the least favorable LOB% and BABIP lists.
Here is the same graph presented with a best-fit trendline. As shown, it slopes from the northwest quadrant down and to the right through the intersection to the southeast quadrant. Generally speaking, the lower the BABIP, the higher the LOB%, and the higher BABIP, the lower the LOB%.
The outliers in the NWQ were the pitchers who benefited the most from high LOB% and low BABIP. Here are the pitchers with the highest ratios of LOB% divided by BABIP:
Six of the above pitchers ranked in the top seven in ascending order in ERA minus FIP (E-F), meaning they had better ERAs than FIPs. The other four placed 11th, 17th, 27th, and 28th (out of 147 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2010).
Conversely, the outliers in the SEQ were victimized the most by low LOB% and high BABIP. Here are the pitchers with the lowest ratios:
Seven of the above pitchers ranked in the top ten in descending order in E-F, meaning they had worse ERAs than FIPs. The other four placed 17th, 19th, 21st, and 22nd.
Interestingly, the outliers in the NEQ and SWQ neither benefited nor were victimized in the aggregate as the abnormal percentages in each category basically offset one another. As an example, Moyer, a SWQ outlier, had an ERA (4.84) minus FIP (4.98) of -0.14.
There are several takeaways embedded in this study, some of which are more obvious than others:
There are also a few questions: Is the discrepancy in performance between RISP and bases empty due to a pitcher's ability to work from the windup as opposed to the stretch? Do certain pitchers have an extra gear that they can employ when the going gets tough? Is there a self-fulfilling prophecy at play here, a Yogi-ism where pitchers perform well until they don't perform well? The answers to these questions could go a long way toward understanding how much skill or luck is involved in the year-to-year fluctuations in LOB%.
Courtesy of Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times, you can read more about LOB% here and here.
Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/03/graphing_the_pi.php
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Carlos Zambrano pitched six strong innings, went 3 for 3 at the plate and drove in a run to help the Chicago Cubs beat the New York Mets 9-3 on Thursday. Zambrano (5-2) allowed two runs -- one earned -- on six hits and two walks while picking up his first win at Wrigley Field since Sept. 4. He doubled and scored a run at the plate, and now has four hits in his last four at-bats to raise his average...
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Paul Splittorff wasn't really a household name outside of Kansas City -- he didn't get a single vote in his only year on the Hall of Fame ballot in 1990 -- but he left a big mark on the game in two ways.
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We're jumping ahead quite a few spots, but for good reason as beloved Royals broadcaster and former pitcher Paul Splittorff has passed away this morning. Splittorff was the #12 Greatest Royals player of All-Time. Paul Splittorff was a tall, bespectacled, lanky southpaw with a high leg kick that somehow found a way to get guys out despite ridiculously low strikeout totals. He was known as a...
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COOPERSTOWN, NY ? Ken Gallinger has visited the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum regularly for the past 20 years. But when the Ormstown, Quebec, resident entered the Museum at 3:48 p.m. on Friday, his annual trip to Cooperstown became a part of Hall of Fame history.
Gallinger became the Museum's 15 millionth visitor since the Museum first opened its doors on June 12, 1939, when he entered with his Museum Membership card in hand, just days before the Museum's 72nd birthday.
"I was a little worried when I first came in and saw the folks waiting for me," Gallinger said. "I thought maybe I left my headlights on or something. But ? Wow! ? this is really cool."
Gallinger was greeted by Hall of Fame officials, including President Jeff Idelson, who presented him with a Membership upgrade to the President's Circle level. As a President's Circle Member, Gallinger will receive two tickets to the premium seating area for the July 24 Hall of Fame Induction. The longtime Toronto Blue Jays fan will be able to watch former Jays star Roberto Alomar and former Toronto general manager Pat Gillick receive their Hall of Fame plaques along with Bert Blyleven, the third member of the Class of 2011 at the Hall of Fame.
"My favorite player was Dave Stieb, but I'll always remember my first trip to the Hall of Fame for another Canadian team, the Montreal Expos," Gallinger said. "My first trip to the Museum was (July 28, 1991) ? the day Dennis Martinez of the Expos threw a perfect game. Obviously, you never forget something like that."
Gallinger visited the Museum on Friday with friends Marc Brindle of Mercier, Quebec; Nick Ross of Ormstown and Robert Mahon of Long Sault, Ontario ? which is located just over the Canadian border from New York State near Cornwall, Ontario. Gallinger is a native of Long Sault.
Dressed in a Jays pullover and fresh off a round of golf in Cooperstown, Gallinger was already making plans for his return trip to Cooperstown.
"We used to come to the Hall of Fame every year on Opening Day, but now we come a little later so we can play golf too," Gallinger said. "This is the best Museum in the world."
Gallinger is the first visitor from Canada to become a "millionth" visitor to the Hall of Fame. The complete list of millionth visitors includes:
MILLIONTH VISITORS
MILLIONTH DATE NAME HOME
one...............06/29/56.....John H. Morrissey.............. Bronxville, NY
two...............06/15/63.....Robert Wilson.................... Schenectady, NY
three............06/28/69......Arthur Greenwood............. Chelmsford, MA
four..............08/20/73.....Robert Buraczewski........... Dickson City, PA
five..............10/21/77......Elaine Parachini................. Silver Spring, MD
six...............09/18/82......Ann Hall............................ Wallingford, CT
seven..........07/08/87......John Rourke....................... Gloversville, NY
eight............06/22/90......Alan Agins......................... Westerly, RI
nine............10/09/92.......Dave Halsey, II.................. Mattydale, NY
ten..............08/09/95.......Brett Hornby...................... Glen Ridge, NJ
eleven........10/05/98.......James Mitchell................... Ellenwood, GA
twelve........08/14/01.......Bobby Duley...................... Cape Elizabeth, MA
thirteen......08/17/04.......Gail Millar.......................... Silver Spring, MD
fourteen....08/17/07........Lauren Kohout................... Gloucester Township, NJ
fifteen.......05/13/11.........Ken Gallinger..................... Ormstown, Quebec, Canada
The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum is open seven days a week year round, with the exception of Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year's Day. The Museum observes regular hours of 9 a.m. until 5 p.m. from Labor Day until Memorial Day Weekend. From Memorial Day through the day before Labor Day, the Museum is open from 9 a.m. until 9 p.m. seven days a week. Ticket prices are $19.50 for adults (13 and over), $12 for seniors (65 and over) and for those holding current memberships in the VFW, Disabled American Veterans, American Legion and AMVets organizations, and $7 for juniors (ages 7-12). Members are always admitted free of charge and there is no charge for children 6 years of age or younger. For more information, visit our Web site at baseballhall.org or call 888-HALL-OF-FAME (888-425-5633) or 607-547-7200.
Source: http://baseballhall.org/news/museum-news/hall-fame-welcomes-15-millionth-visitor
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