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Thursday, 30 June 2011
Trevor Bayne brings experience to Daytona this time
Comparing 2011 Division Projections
Last year before the 2010 season started I looked at how a couple different projection systems saw the season playing out. With this season just one day old, I wanted to do the same for the 2011 projections. Here I take a graphical look at the number of wins six systems project for every team and plot those out for each division separately. This gives a good picture of the range of predictions and how much consensus there is across systems.
I used five projection systems for which I could get win totals and the Vegas regular season over/under win totals. I grabbed the Marcel, Bill James and Cairo projections complied by the folks at RLYW who ran the player-level projections for those systems through the Diamond Mind Simulator to get win totals. I also used THT's Oliver and BPro's Pecota projections (as of March 30th). The Vegas lines are from Pinnacle Sports, so they are not really Vegas's numbers but the offshore ones (also as of March 30th).

All of the projections systems see a pretty clear ordering of the five AL east teams, with a slight disagreement in the cellar dweller Toronto (Marcel, Cairo, Bill James, Pecota) or Baltimore (THT, Vegas). I was surprised to see Baltimore come out on top of Toronto in so many projections. Although not a difference in ordering, THT is not nearly as fond of Tampa Bay as the other systems are. And interestingly Vegas has a lower win total for the Yankees than any other system, I always assumed that there would be a pro-Yankees bias among bettors.

All six projections see the AL Central as pretty clearly two-tiered — with Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit competing for the division title and then Cleveland and KC a solid ten wins behind. Though everyone likes Cleveland more than Kansas City. As in the AL East THT has some outlier values, projecting more extreme values for Detroit, Cleveland and Kansas City

The AL West is similarly two-tiered — with Texas and Oakland at the top, and Los Angeles and Seattle bringing up the rear. There is only one disagreement in the ordering with THT thinking Seattle is above Los Angeles. THT also likes the top two teams much more than the other systems do. Vegas is pretty high on LA, seeing them just a slight step behind the Texas and Oakland. If you have faith in the projection systems over the bettors and bookmakers an under on the Angels is a clear play.

There is a farily well agreed upon ordering in the NL East,.THT is again something of an outlier projecting New York and Florida as fairly even while everyone else clearly prefers Florida, and is the only system that likes Atlanta over Philadelphia to win the division. If you trust the projections systems over Vegas this division offers two opportunities: the under on Philly and the over on New York.

Sorry about the color choice here. Both St. Louis and Cincinnati deserve red, but their lines are very close so to keep things distinct. So I went with black for Cincinnati and red for St. Louis. This is another two-tiered division with four teams fairly close at the top (though Chicago is at the bottom of the top tier in most systems) and then two bottom dwellers. Like the AL Central this is projected to be a pretty competitive conference. Again THT is something of an outlier liking Cincinnati and St. Louis much more than the other systems.

Five of the six systems like San Francisco to repeat at NL West champions, with Marcel the lone dissenter picking Los Angeles. THT is again the most bullish about the favorite's win total, as it is the only system projecting more than 90 wins for San Francisco. Vegas likes Colorado by a fairly big margin compared to the projection systems, so there is another play if you are so inclined.
Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/03/comparing_2011.php
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Lightning bring back Roloson for one year, $3 million
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Lugo and Lowrie
Source: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031385.php
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Wednesday, 29 June 2011
POSTGAME NOTES: A rare flat night for Romo, Sandoval health update, Carlos Pena is a name to note, etc. (Extra Baggs)
The life of a reliever can be unfair. Sergio Romo hasn?t just been terrific against right-handed hitters. He?s been otherworldly. Entering Wednesday night?s game, he held them to a .123 average (8 for 65) with a staggering 33 strikeouts. Oh, and just three walks ? one of which was intentional. Go back and reread those numbers. They?re [...]
Source : Extra Baggs
Explore : Baseball Players, Carlos Pena, Sports
Source: http://wik.io/info/US/274714291
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Cubs end Giants' 7-game win streak (AP)
Pinch-hitter Aramis Ramirez singled to drive in the winning run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and the Chicago Cubs beat San Francisco 2-1 on Wednesday night to end the Giants' seven-game winning streak. Sergio Romo (3-1) gave up an infield single to leadoff batter Tony Campana, who moved to second on Reed Johnson's sacrifice.
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Riggleman's bizarre resignation is considered career suicide
In any job, there's management and there's labor. And in baseball, managers sometimes aren't really in management.
That was evident to Washington Nationals manager Jim Riggleman, or, should we say, former manager Jim Riggleman. The Nationals have won 11 of their last 12 games, progressing to the cusp of contention in the National League East. Riggleman's contract was up at the end of the year. He wanted the team to pick up his 2012 contract option, and issued an ultimatum Thursday to GM Mike Rizzo, according to reports.
...Source: http://baseball.about.com/b/2011/06/24/rigglemans-bizarre-resignation-considered-career-suicide.htm
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New RSS Feed
Source: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031392.php
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Tattoo parlor-owner tied to Ohio State scandal pleads guilty
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Twins OF Young has bone bruise in right ankle
Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=6713874&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines
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Tuesday, 28 June 2011
Choo out at least two months after surgery
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Ex-Ray Gomes, Leake help Reds shut out Rays
Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310627130&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines
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Stark: Dodgers now in Chapter 11 Land
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Monday, 27 June 2011
Understanding the Standings
Two-and-a-half weeks into the season and the standings are pretty much in-line with the consensus viewpoint prior to Opening Day. While this observation is no solace for Red Sox fans, who is all that surprised that the Yankees, Rangers, Phillies, Reds, and Rockies are atop their divisions? Or that the Mariners, Mets, Astros, and Diamondbacks are in the basement?
Among teams in first or last place, only the Red Sox, Indians, and Twins would cause those in the know to scratch their head. As it relates to clubs in the middle of the pack, maybe the Royals are outperforming as much as the Braves are underperforming but there is really very little to quibble about as far as the rest of the W-L records are concerned. Oh, there might be a few fans out there who were hoping that their favorite team got off to a better start, but I don't see how anyone outside Boston or Minnesota could argue for more than one win or perhaps two at this juncture.
With respect to the Red Sox, absent some permanent change in the fundamental outlook, I would simply lower their projected win total for the year by the difference between the actual (5) and expected (9) wins to date. In other words, if 95 wins was a good estimate before the season, then I would be inclined to go with 91 today. Going 86-61 (.585) the rest of the way doesn't seem so unreasonable to me.
Same thing with the Twins. Instead of winning, say, 85 games, perhaps the team ends up with 82 or 83. As for Cleveland, maybe the Indians win 75 to 80 games rather than 70 to 75. I know this is a simplistic way of looking at today's standings — especially without taking into consideration strength of schedules — but I believe it is more rational than making some sweeping conclusions about this team or that team 14 to 17 games into the season.
Will there be surprises this year? Most definitely. No season ever goes according to plan. Injuries, breakouts/breakdowns, and good luck/bad luck all come into play each and every campaign. There is no reason why this year will be different. But don't give up on the Red Sox or Twins, or raise that 2011 AL Central Championship banner in Cleveland quite yet.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST TEAM W L PCT GB Yankees 9 5 .643 - Rays 7 9 .438 3 Blue Jays 7 9 .438 3 Orioles 6 9 .400 3.5 Red Sox 5 10 .333 4.5
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL TEAM W L PCT GB Indians 12 4 .750 - Royals 10 6 .625 2 Tigers 8 9 .471 4.5 White Sox 7 9 .438 5 Twins 6 10 .375 6
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST TEAM W L PCT GB Rangers 11 5 .688 - Angels 10 6 .625 1 A's 8 8 .500 3 Mariners 5 12 .294 6.5
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST TEAM W L PCT GB Phillies 10 5 .667 - Marlins 8 6 .571 1.5 Nationals 8 7 .533 2 Braves 7 10 .412 4 Mets 5 11 .313 5.5
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL TEAM W L PCT GB Reds 9 7 .563 - Pirates 8 8 .500 1 Cardinals 8 8 .500 1 Cubs 8 8 .500 1 Brewers 8 8 .500 1 Astros 5 11 .313 4
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST TEAM W L PCT GB Rockies 12 4 .750 - Giants 9 7 .563 3 Dodgers 8 9 .471 4.5 Padres 7 9 .438 5 Diamondbacks 6 8 .429 5
Back in January, I thought the A's, Brewers, and Rockies were the best bets to exceed their projected win totals. I lowered my expectations for Milwaukee after learning about Zack Greinke's injury but still thought the NL Central would be a wide-open affair with the Reds, Cardinals, Cubs, and Brewers fighting it out for most of the summer. I have little or no reason to change my outlook for the A's or Rockies and wouldn't be totally surprised if one or both ended up in the World Series.
Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/04/understanding_t.php
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Braun smacks tiebreaking homer to lift Brewers
Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310626108&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines
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Sunday, 26 June 2011
Graphing the Pitchers: LOB% and BABIP
Thanks to the work of Voros McCracken and later Tom Tango, Defense Independent Pitching and Fielding Independent Pitching have become widely accepted in the baseball community as better measurements of pitching effectiveness (and predictability of future results) than earned run average (ERA). DIPS and FIP focus on strikeouts, walks, and home runs — the three primary outcomes that a pitcher controls. Except for perhaps catchers, fielders have no impact on these events.
While SO, BB, and HR play a large part in determining ERA, the latter is also a function of defensive and bullpen support, as well as performance with bases empty vs. runners in scoring position. As a result, the difference between ERA and FIP is almost entirely accounted by strand rate (LOB%*) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Each variable has a coefficient correlation of nearly 80 percent with the delta between ERA and FIP.
* Based on the formula, the strand rate is an estimator of LOB% rather than an actual tally.
When you put the two together (LOB% divided by BABIP), the coefficient correlation jumps to 90 percent. Accordingly, the coefficient of determination or R² is 81 percent. In other words, more than four-fifths of the difference between ERA and FIP is due to LOB% and BABIP. As such, in addition to SO, BB, and HR rates, it makes sense to study LOB% and BABIP to understand why a pitcher's ERA may be better or worse than his FIP.
The MLB averages for LOB% and BABIP have been running at almost exactly 72 percent and .300, respectively, for several years. These percentages held true once again in 2010.
Plotting LOB% on the y-axis and BABIP on the x-axis for all 147 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2010, I created the following graph. As has become customary around these parts, I broke the graph into quadrants via the intersection of the LOB% and BABIP means. The pitchers in the northwest quadrant had high LOB% and low BABIP. Moving clockwise, the pitchers in the northeast quadrant had high LOB% and high BABIP, the hurlers in the southeast quadrant had low LOB% and high BABIP, and those in the southwest quadrant had low LOB% and low BABIP.
The numbers were lifted from FanGraphs in January. The BABIP data was subsequently recalculated, perhaps due to FanGraphs using an incorrect formula initially. While directionally correct, the BABIP used for this graph are generally about .005-.010 higher than those listed on the site now. The LOB% data matches exactly. You can download the spreadsheet with the applicable data here.
As usual, I have identified the outliers in all four quadrants in the graph above. In addition, as shown below, I have created lists of leaders and laggards for both LOB% and BABIP. For perspective, the ranges on LOB% and BABIP were 59.5-82.7 percent and .238-.354, respectively.
Starting with LOB%, I highlighted the six pitchers with strand rates over 80 percent and compared 2010 with their career marks. All but Madison Bumgarner (who pitched just 10 innings prior to last season) have career LOB% that are well below their results in 2010. That said, I found it interesting that the career rates were all above the MLB norm of 72 percent.
Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Brian Duensing, Tim Hudson, and Tommy Hunter all posted career high LOB%. Halladay had only exceeded 75 percent twice before last year.
In addition to sharing high LOB%, the common thread among these pitchers is that they fared better with RISP than with the bases empty.

There were 11 pitchers with strand rates of 65 percent or lower. Excluding John Ely (who was a rookie), all but Luke Hochevar have career LOB% that are well above their results in 2010. Nonetheless, I found it as equally interesting as the observation from the leader board that the career rates were all at or below the MLB norm of 72 percent.
Nate Robertson, Tim Wakefield, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Jeff Francis, and Paul Maholm all posted career low LOB%. Scott Feldman, Jeremy Bonderman, and Tony Pena produced the second-lowest LOB% while Jamie Moyer had the third-lowest since he broke into the majors in 1986.
In addition to sharing low LOB%, the common thread among these pitchers is that they fared worse with RISP than with the bases empty.

Turning to BABIP, I spotlighted the 14 pitchers with averages under .270 and, like LOB%, compared 2010 with their career marks. All of these starters (including Armando Galarraga who actually posted a .261 BABIP based on FanGraphs' revised calculations) have career BABIP that are above their results in 2010. Of note, the career rates were all below the MLB norm of .300.
Matt Cain has never had a league-average BABIP and, in fact, has not exceeded the .278 he allowed in 2007.
Hudson and Hunter appear on the most favorable LOB% and BABIP lists. Moyer, on the other hand, was the only pitcher to appear on a leader and laggard board.

There were 16 pitchers with BABIP higher than .330. All of these pitchers have career BABIP that are below their results in 2010. In five cases, the career marks are slightly below the MLB norm of .300. The balance are all higher.
Maholm and Feldman appear on the least favorable LOB% and BABIP lists.

Here is the same graph presented with a best-fit trendline. As shown, it slopes from the northwest quadrant down and to the right through the intersection to the southeast quadrant. Generally speaking, the lower the BABIP, the higher the LOB%, and the higher BABIP, the lower the LOB%.
The outliers in the NWQ were the pitchers who benefited the most from high LOB% and low BABIP. Here are the pitchers with the highest ratios of LOB% divided by BABIP:

Six of the above pitchers ranked in the top seven in ascending order in ERA minus FIP (E-F), meaning they had better ERAs than FIPs. The other four placed 11th, 17th, 27th, and 28th (out of 147 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2010).

Conversely, the outliers in the SEQ were victimized the most by low LOB% and high BABIP. Here are the pitchers with the lowest ratios:

Seven of the above pitchers ranked in the top ten in descending order in E-F, meaning they had worse ERAs than FIPs. The other four placed 17th, 19th, 21st, and 22nd.

Interestingly, the outliers in the NEQ and SWQ neither benefited nor were victimized in the aggregate as the abnormal percentages in each category basically offset one another. As an example, Moyer, a SWQ outlier, had an ERA (4.84) minus FIP (4.98) of -0.14.
There are several takeaways embedded in this study, some of which are more obvious than others:
There are also a few questions: Is the discrepancy in performance between RISP and bases empty due to a pitcher's ability to work from the windup as opposed to the stretch? Do certain pitchers have an extra gear that they can employ when the going gets tough? Is there a self-fulfilling prophecy at play here, a Yogi-ism where pitchers perform well until they don't perform well? The answers to these questions could go a long way toward understanding how much skill or luck is involved in the year-to-year fluctuations in LOB%.
Courtesy of Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times, you can read more about LOB% here and here.
Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/03/graphing_the_pi.php
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Top games of the week: June 19 to 25
date game stars 06-22 Athletics @ Mets *** box score 06-24 Reds @ Orioles ** box score 06-21 Rockies @ Indians ** box score 06-24 Nationals @ White Sox ** box score 06-22 Angels @ Marlins * box score
The Athletics @ Mets contest topping the above list is ranked 16th for the season. The May 18 game featuring the Yankees @ Orioles is still the best of the year.
Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.
Source: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/top-games-of-the-week-june-19-to-25/
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Source: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031386.php
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A-Rod reveals he's playing despite knee injury
Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=6704385&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines
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Tigers notes, quotes from win over D'backs (Toronto Star)
The Tigers scored first when Alex Avila roped a double to right-center in the second inning, scoring Victor Martinez from first.
Source : Toronto Star
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Source: http://wik.io/info/US/273946444
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Saturday, 25 June 2011
Brent Burns, Brian Campbell traded on first day of draft
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Sources: Wilpon chides Mets for not retaliating
Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=6704387&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines
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Realignment: What they're saying, and what you're saying
The big topic of the week remains the talks between the owners and players about possible realignment of the divisions in Major League Baseball, first reported on Saturday by ESPN.com.
The opinions are wide and varied: Some believe it's a good way for baseball to evolve.
...Source: http://baseball.about.com/b/2011/06/15/realignment-what-theyre-saying-and-what-youre-saying.htm
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Nats may go to Davey Johnson as manager (AP)
Their manager quit, and their interim skipper was ejected in his first game in the new role. The Washington Nationals keep winning anyway, and help could be on the way. General manager Mike Rizzo has talked to veteran Davey Johnson about replacing Jim Riggleman, who resigned Thursday. Interim manager John McLaren was thrown out in the eighth inning Friday night, but the Nationals still went on to a...
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Marlins' managerial merry-go-round keeps rolling alon
Edwin Rodriguez abandoned ship on the Florida Marlins' sinking season on Sunday, unexpectedly resigning as manager.
The Marlins, with an up-and-coming everyday roster and potentially great young pitchers, have lost 17 of 18 games in June amid injuries to key players such as Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez. In April and May, they looked like a contender. They're now in last place in the NL East.
...Source: http://baseball.about.com/b/2011/06/19/marlins-managerial-merry-go-round-keeps-rolling-along.htm
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Riggleman's bizarre resignation is considered career suicide
In any job, there's management and there's labor. And in baseball, managers sometimes aren't really in management.
That was evident to Washington Nationals manager Jim Riggleman, or, should we say, former manager Jim Riggleman. The Nationals have won 11 of their last 12 games, progressing to the cusp of contention in the National League East. Riggleman's contract was up at the end of the year. He wanted the team to pick up his 2012 contract option, and issued an ultimatum Thursday to GM Mike Rizzo, according to reports.
...Source: http://baseball.about.com/b/2011/06/24/rigglemans-bizarre-resignation-considered-career-suicide.htm
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Friday, 24 June 2011
Pena, two big innings lead to victory
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Lincecum strikes out 12, leads Giants (StarTribune.com)
Tim Lincecum struck out 12 in seven superb innings, helping the San Francisco Giants beat the Minnesota Twins 2-1 Thursday.
Source : StarTribune.com
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Source: http://wik.io/info/US/273579822
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Lincecum strikes out 12, leads Giants (StarTribune.com)
Tim Lincecum struck out 12 in seven superb innings, helping the San Francisco Giants beat the Minnesota Twins 2-1 Thursday.
Source : StarTribune.com
Explore : Baseball Players, Minnesota Twins, MLB, San Francisco Giants, Sports
Source: http://wik.io/info/US/273579822
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43-1 in 2011, Djokovic still appears to be forgotten man
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Celebrate the games
Museum visitors get a taste of cricket?s relationship to baseball in Hall of Fame?s new exhibit
The chatter was like that of any group of baseball fans ? exchanges focusing on batting, pitching and fielding.
But on Saturday at the Baseball Hall of Fame, many of those fans were talking about baseball's distant cousin, cricket, and the Museum's new Swinging Away exhibit that celebrates the relationship of the two sports.
Swinging Away: How Baseball and Cricket Connect opened in April at the Hall of Fame, which will display the exhibit ? created by the Marylebone Cricket Club of London with assistance from the Baseball Hall of Fame ? through February. Events celebrating the exhibit on Saturday in Cooperstown ? and continuing on Sunday ? feature round-table discussions of the history of both sports as well as demonstrations of cricket.
"It has been a great pleasure to put this exhibition together, but it would have been a one-sided endeavor without the enthusiastic support of the staff at the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum," said Beth Hise, lead curator of the exhibition, based in Sydney, Australia as lead curator of the Historic Houses Trust, and author of the book by the same name, Swinging Away. "It has also been a privilege to explore cricket in America through the collection of the CC Morris Library in Haverford, which the generous support of their staff. I hope Swinging Away brings some new discoveries and interesting stories to the visitors at the Hall of Fame."
Cricket evolved as the first team sport in America, before giving way in popularity to baseball and other games. George Kirsch, a professor of history at Manhattan College and one of Saturday's roundtable panelists, estimates that as many as 10,000 Americans played cricket before the Civil War ? an astounding number for a largely agrarian society.
"Cricket was America's first team sport," said Kirsch, has penned several books about the subject. "Why did baseball overtake it in popularity? One reason is that Americans would simply not accept an English game as the National Pastime."
Worldwide, however, cricket continues to prosper, and the game is generally considered the second-most popular sport on the planet, behind only soccer. Paul Hensley, president of the C.C. Morris Cricket Library at Haverford College, which has loaned several artifacts to the Swinging Away exhibit, suggests that another challenge for cricket in America was the exclusivity of the teams.
"You can look in the Swinging Away exhibit and see ? from the photos of the teams more than 100 years ago ? that the game was played by people of uniform ethnicity," Hensley said. "It became difficult for other people to connect to cricket."
But Lloyd Jodah, president of American College Cricket, believes the ethnicity of the game is now helping grow the sport in America.
"When immigrants came to this country 100 years ago, they wanted to be Americans," said Jodah, who moved to the United States from Guyana in 1982 and is now working to support cricket's popularity among colleges. "The best way to do that was to play the American game: Baseball.
"But now, the game of cricket is making a comeback, and it's a comeback based on ethnicity. That's a strength of the game in this day and age."
Swinging Away reveals some remarkable surprises, dispels some cherished convictions and sets out for the first time to explore these two great bat and ball sports side by side. The collection includes uniforms and equipment worn by the biggest names of each sport, including as Derek Jeter and Andrew Flintoff, Bengie Molina and Adam Gilchrist, Kumar Sangakkara, Paul Collingwood, Robin Wallace and Charlotte Edwards and Shahid Afridi.
Swinging Away is featured on the third floor of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, and admission to the exhibition is included with Museum admission. For more information on Swinging Away, please click here.
Craig Muder is the director of communications for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum
Source: http://baseballhall.org/news/museum-news/celebrate-games
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Thursday, 23 June 2011
Comparing 2011 Division Projections
Last year before the 2010 season started I looked at how a couple different projection systems saw the season playing out. With this season just one day old, I wanted to do the same for the 2011 projections. Here I take a graphical look at the number of wins six systems project for every team and plot those out for each division separately. This gives a good picture of the range of predictions and how much consensus there is across systems.
I used five projection systems for which I could get win totals and the Vegas regular season over/under win totals. I grabbed the Marcel, Bill James and Cairo projections complied by the folks at RLYW who ran the player-level projections for those systems through the Diamond Mind Simulator to get win totals. I also used THT's Oliver and BPro's Pecota projections (as of March 30th). The Vegas lines are from Pinnacle Sports, so they are not really Vegas's numbers but the offshore ones (also as of March 30th).

All of the projections systems see a pretty clear ordering of the five AL east teams, with a slight disagreement in the cellar dweller Toronto (Marcel, Cairo, Bill James, Pecota) or Baltimore (THT, Vegas). I was surprised to see Baltimore come out on top of Toronto in so many projections. Although not a difference in ordering, THT is not nearly as fond of Tampa Bay as the other systems are. And interestingly Vegas has a lower win total for the Yankees than any other system, I always assumed that there would be a pro-Yankees bias among bettors.

All six projections see the AL Central as pretty clearly two-tiered — with Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit competing for the division title and then Cleveland and KC a solid ten wins behind. Though everyone likes Cleveland more than Kansas City. As in the AL East THT has some outlier values, projecting more extreme values for Detroit, Cleveland and Kansas City

The AL West is similarly two-tiered — with Texas and Oakland at the top, and Los Angeles and Seattle bringing up the rear. There is only one disagreement in the ordering with THT thinking Seattle is above Los Angeles. THT also likes the top two teams much more than the other systems do. Vegas is pretty high on LA, seeing them just a slight step behind the Texas and Oakland. If you have faith in the projection systems over the bettors and bookmakers an under on the Angels is a clear play.

There is a farily well agreed upon ordering in the NL East,.THT is again something of an outlier projecting New York and Florida as fairly even while everyone else clearly prefers Florida, and is the only system that likes Atlanta over Philadelphia to win the division. If you trust the projections systems over Vegas this division offers two opportunities: the under on Philly and the over on New York.

Sorry about the color choice here. Both St. Louis and Cincinnati deserve red, but their lines are very close so to keep things distinct. So I went with black for Cincinnati and red for St. Louis. This is another two-tiered division with four teams fairly close at the top (though Chicago is at the bottom of the top tier in most systems) and then two bottom dwellers. Like the AL Central this is projected to be a pretty competitive conference. Again THT is something of an outlier liking Cincinnati and St. Louis much more than the other systems.

Five of the six systems like San Francisco to repeat at NL West champions, with Marcel the lone dissenter picking Los Angeles. THT is again the most bullish about the favorite's win total, as it is the only system projecting more than 90 wins for San Francisco. Vegas likes Colorado by a fairly big margin compared to the projection systems, so there is another play if you are so inclined.
Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/03/comparing_2011.php
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