Thursday, 30 June 2011

Trevor Bayne brings experience to Daytona this time

Sprint Cup drivers have reached out to Trevor Bayne this week in hopes the Daytona 500 winner will draft with them Saturday night.


Source: http://rssfeeds.usatoday.com/~r/UsatodaycomSports-TopStories/~3/We4ASK1hwqY/2011-07-01-trevor-bayne-daytona_n.htm

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Comparing 2011 Division Projections

Last year before the 2010 season started I looked at how a couple different projection systems saw the season playing out. With this season just one day old, I wanted to do the same for the 2011 projections. Here I take a graphical look at the number of wins six systems project for every team and plot those out for each division separately. This gives a good picture of the range of predictions and how much consensus there is across systems.

I used five projection systems for which I could get win totals and the Vegas regular season over/under win totals. I grabbed the Marcel, Bill James and Cairo projections complied by the folks at RLYW who ran the player-level projections for those systems through the Diamond Mind Simulator to get win totals. I also used THT's Oliver and BPro's Pecota projections (as of March 30th). The Vegas lines are from Pinnacle Sports, so they are not really Vegas's numbers but the offshore ones (also as of March 30th).

AL_East_2011.png

All of the projections systems see a pretty clear ordering of the five AL east teams, with a slight disagreement in the cellar dweller Toronto (Marcel, Cairo, Bill James, Pecota) or Baltimore (THT, Vegas). I was surprised to see Baltimore come out on top of Toronto in so many projections. Although not a difference in ordering, THT is not nearly as fond of Tampa Bay as the other systems are. And interestingly Vegas has a lower win total for the Yankees than any other system, I always assumed that there would be a pro-Yankees bias among bettors.

AL_Central_2011.png

All six projections see the AL Central as pretty clearly two-tiered — with Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit competing for the division title and then Cleveland and KC a solid ten wins behind. Though everyone likes Cleveland more than Kansas City. As in the AL East THT has some outlier values, projecting more extreme values for Detroit, Cleveland and Kansas City

AL_West_2011.png

The AL West is similarly two-tiered — with Texas and Oakland at the top, and Los Angeles and Seattle bringing up the rear. There is only one disagreement in the ordering with THT thinking Seattle is above Los Angeles. THT also likes the top two teams much more than the other systems do. Vegas is pretty high on LA, seeing them just a slight step behind the Texas and Oakland. If you have faith in the projection systems over the bettors and bookmakers an under on the Angels is a clear play.

NL_East_2011.png

There is a farily well agreed upon ordering in the NL East,.THT is again something of an outlier projecting New York and Florida as fairly even while everyone else clearly prefers Florida, and is the only system that likes Atlanta over Philadelphia to win the division. If you trust the projections systems over Vegas this division offers two opportunities: the under on Philly and the over on New York.

NL_Central_2011.png

Sorry about the color choice here. Both St. Louis and Cincinnati deserve red, but their lines are very close so to keep things distinct. So I went with black for Cincinnati and red for St. Louis. This is another two-tiered division with four teams fairly close at the top (though Chicago is at the bottom of the top tier in most systems) and then two bottom dwellers. Like the AL Central this is projected to be a pretty competitive conference. Again THT is something of an outlier liking Cincinnati and St. Louis much more than the other systems.

NL_West_2011.png

Five of the six systems like San Francisco to repeat at NL West champions, with Marcel the lone dissenter picking Los Angeles. THT is again the most bullish about the favorite's win total, as it is the only system projecting more than 90 wins for San Francisco. Vegas likes Colorado by a fairly big margin compared to the projection systems, so there is another play if you are so inclined.

Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/03/comparing_2011.php

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Lightning bring back Roloson for one year, $3 million

The small marketplace for free-agent goaltenders became smaller when Tampa Bay re-signed Dwayne Roloson to a one-year, $3 million contract.


Source: http://rssfeeds.usatoday.com/~r/UsatodaycomSports-TopStories/~3/FJDsY7Ex1U0/2011-06-30-thursday-free-agent-signings-moves_n.htm

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Lugo and Lowrie

Julio Lugo will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery Tuesday to repair a torn mensiscus. The Red Sox are not sure of the severity of the tear, but Julio is unlikely to make opening day, handing the starting shortstop job to Jed...


Source: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031385.php

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Yanks' key homers back strong Burnett

Yanks' key homers back strong Burnett

Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_06_29_milmlb_nyamlb_1&mode=recap_home&c_id=nyy&partnerId=rss_mlb

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Padres feeling fine after sweep of Royals

Padres feeling fine after sweep of Royals

Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_06_29_kcamlb_sdnmlb_1&mode=recap_home&c_id=sd&partnerId=rss_mlb

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Wednesday, 29 June 2011

POSTGAME NOTES: A rare flat night for Romo, Sandoval health update, Carlos Pena is a name to note, etc. (Extra Baggs)

The life of a reliever can be unfair. Sergio Romo hasn?t just been terrific against right-handed hitters. He?s been otherworldly. Entering Wednesday night?s game, he held them to a .123 average (8 for 65) with a staggering 33 strikeouts. Oh, and just three walks ? one of which was intentional. Go back and reread those numbers. They?re [...]

Source : Extra Baggs

Explore : Baseball Players, Carlos Pena, Sports

Source: http://wik.io/info/US/274714291

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Cubs end Giants' 7-game win streak (AP)

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 29: Tony Campana #41 of the Chicago Cubs beats a throw to Aubrey Huff #17 of the San Francisco Giants for a single in the bottom of the 9th inning at Wrigley Field on June 29, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cubs defeated the Giants 2-1. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Pinch-hitter Aramis Ramirez singled to drive in the winning run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth and the Chicago Cubs beat San Francisco 2-1 on Wednesday night to end the Giants' seven-game winning streak. Sergio Romo (3-1) gave up an infield single to leadoff batter Tony Campana, who moved to second on Reed Johnson's sacrifice.


Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/sports/rss/mlb/SIG=11jo1u039/*http%3A//sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=310629116

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Riggleman's bizarre resignation is considered career suicide

In any job, there's management and there's labor. And in baseball, managers sometimes aren't really in management.

That was evident to Washington Nationals manager Jim Riggleman, or, should we say, former manager Jim Riggleman. The Nationals have won 11 of their last 12 games, progressing to the cusp of contention in the National League East. Riggleman's contract was up at the end of the year. He wanted the team to pick up his 2012 contract option, and issued an ultimatum Thursday to GM Mike Rizzo, according to reports.

...

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Source: http://baseball.about.com/b/2011/06/24/rigglemans-bizarre-resignation-considered-career-suicide.htm

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White Sox Close To Signing Keenyn Walker

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MlbTradeRumors/~3/eNH-ps5ePJ0/white-sox-close-to-signing-keenyn-walker.html

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New RSS Feed

If you read Baseball Musings via RSS, with the move to WordPress there is a new feed. Please change your readers to http://feeds2.feedburner.com/Baseballmusingscom....


Source: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031392.php

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Tattoo parlor-owner tied to Ohio State scandal pleads guilty

Edward Rife, a tattoo parlor owner who helped trigger an NCAA probe of Ohio State, pled guilty to drug trafficking and money laundering.


Source: http://rssfeeds.usatoday.com/~r/UsatodaycomSports-TopStories/~3/upT9DO6xb6E/2011-06-28-ohio-state-tattoo-parlor-owner-guilty_n.htm

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Rangers Not Interested In Beltran, K-Rod

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MlbTradeRumors/~3/-p2lKF6JHFQ/rangers-interested-in-beltran-k-rod.html

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Twins OF Young has bone bruise in right ankle

Twins outfielder Delmon Young has a bone bruise in his right ankle.

Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=6713874&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

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Tuesday, 28 June 2011

Choo out at least two months after surgery

Choo out at least two months after surgery

Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110628&content_id=21105004&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb

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Choo out at least two months after surgery

Choo out at least two months after surgery

Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110628&content_id=21105004&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb

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Quick Hits: Deadline, Reds, Asdrubal, Pirates, Rox

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MlbTradeRumors/~3/ga2hXaZieL4/quick-hits-deadline-reds-asdrubal-pirates-rox.html

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BRUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCE

Source: http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/08/bruuuuuuuuuuuuuuce.html

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Tigers Gauging Trade Interest In Brad Thomas

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MlbTradeRumors/~3/7sQvudGIt68/tigers-gauging-trade-interest-in-brad-thomas.html

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Ex-Ray Gomes, Leake help Reds shut out Rays

Jonny Gomes hit a towering homer, Mike Leake pitched six strong innings and the Cincinnati Reds beat the Tampa Bay Rays 5-0 on Monday night.

Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310627130&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

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Stark: Dodgers now in Chapter 11 Land

By filing Chapter 11, Frank McCourt has put team in the hands of a bankruptcy judge

Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=6709087&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

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Monday, 27 June 2011

Colin Cowherd Nonsensical Falsehood of the Day

Source: http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/10/colin-cowherd-nonsensical-falsehood-of.html

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Congratulations 2008 NL Champion Philadelphia Phillies!

Source: http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/10/congratulations-2008-nl-champion.html

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Quick Hits: Deadline, Reds, Asdrubal, Pirates, Rox

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MlbTradeRumors/~3/ga2hXaZieL4/quick-hits-deadline-reds-asdrubal-pirates-rox.html

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Understanding the Standings

Two-and-a-half weeks into the season and the standings are pretty much in-line with the consensus viewpoint prior to Opening Day. While this observation is no solace for Red Sox fans, who is all that surprised that the Yankees, Rangers, Phillies, Reds, and Rockies are atop their divisions? Or that the Mariners, Mets, Astros, and Diamondbacks are in the basement?

Among teams in first or last place, only the Red Sox, Indians, and Twins would cause those in the know to scratch their head. As it relates to clubs in the middle of the pack, maybe the Royals are outperforming as much as the Braves are underperforming but there is really very little to quibble about as far as the rest of the W-L records are concerned. Oh, there might be a few fans out there who were hoping that their favorite team got off to a better start, but I don't see how anyone outside Boston or Minnesota could argue for more than one win or perhaps two at this juncture.

With respect to the Red Sox, absent some permanent change in the fundamental outlook, I would simply lower their projected win total for the year by the difference between the actual (5) and expected (9) wins to date. In other words, if 95 wins was a good estimate before the season, then I would be inclined to go with 91 today. Going 86-61 (.585) the rest of the way doesn't seem so unreasonable to me.

Same thing with the Twins. Instead of winning, say, 85 games, perhaps the team ends up with 82 or 83. As for Cleveland, maybe the Indians win 75 to 80 games rather than 70 to 75. I know this is a simplistic way of looking at today's standings — especially without taking into consideration strength of schedules — but I believe it is more rational than making some sweeping conclusions about this team or that team 14 to 17 games into the season.

Will there be surprises this year? Most definitely. No season ever goes according to plan. Injuries, breakouts/breakdowns, and good luck/bad luck all come into play each and every campaign. There is no reason why this year will be different. But don't give up on the Red Sox or Twins, or raise that 2011 AL Central Championship banner in Cleveland quite yet.

 AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB Yankees       9    5  .643  - Rays          7    9  .438   3 Blue Jays     7    9  .438   3 Orioles       6    9  .400   3.5 Red Sox       5   10  .333   4.5 
 AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB Indians      12    4  .750  - Royals       10    6  .625   2 Tigers        8    9  .471   4.5 White Sox     7    9  .438   5 Twins         6   10  .375   6 
 AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB Rangers      11    5  .688  - Angels       10    6  .625   1 A's           8    8  .500   3 Mariners      5   12  .294   6.5 
 NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB Phillies     10    5  .667  - Marlins       8    6  .571   1.5 Nationals     8    7  .533   2 Braves        7   10  .412   4 Mets          5   11  .313   5.5 
 NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB Reds          9    7  .563  - Pirates       8    8  .500   1 Cardinals     8    8  .500   1 Cubs          8    8  .500   1 Brewers       8    8  .500   1 Astros        5   11  .313   4 
 NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST TEAM         W    L   PCT  GB Rockies      12    4  .750  - Giants        9    7  .563   3 Dodgers       8    9  .471   4.5 Padres        7    9  .438   5 Diamondbacks  6    8  .429   5 

Back in January, I thought the A's, Brewers, and Rockies were the best bets to exceed their projected win totals. I lowered my expectations for Milwaukee after learning about Zack Greinke's injury but still thought the NL Central would be a wide-open affair with the Reds, Cardinals, Cubs, and Brewers fighting it out for most of the summer. I have little or no reason to change my outlook for the A's or Rockies and wouldn't be totally surprised if one or both ended up in the World Series.

Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/04/understanding_t.php

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Phillies Release J.C. Romero

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MlbTradeRumors/~3/3LvuCl_11Ls/phillies-release-jc-romero-.html

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Braun smacks tiebreaking homer to lift Brewers

Ryan Braun extended his hitting streak to 17 games with a tiebreaking home run and the Milwaukee Brewers beat the Minnesota Twins 6-2 Sunday.

Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310626108&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

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Tigers' bats 'Spark' late in finale

Tigers' bats 'Spark' late in finale

Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_06_26_arimlb_detmlb_1&mode=recap_home&c_id=det&partnerId=rss_mlb

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Drew leaves game with left eye bruise

Drew leaves game with left eye bruise

Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110626&content_id=21029406&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb

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Sunday, 26 June 2011

Graphing the Pitchers: LOB% and BABIP

Thanks to the work of Voros McCracken and later Tom Tango, Defense Independent Pitching and Fielding Independent Pitching have become widely accepted in the baseball community as better measurements of pitching effectiveness (and predictability of future results) than earned run average (ERA). DIPS and FIP focus on strikeouts, walks, and home runs — the three primary outcomes that a pitcher controls. Except for perhaps catchers, fielders have no impact on these events.

While SO, BB, and HR play a large part in determining ERA, the latter is also a function of defensive and bullpen support, as well as performance with bases empty vs. runners in scoring position. As a result, the difference between ERA and FIP is almost entirely accounted by strand rate (LOB%*) and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Each variable has a coefficient correlation of nearly 80 percent with the delta between ERA and FIP.

* Based on the formula, the strand rate is an estimator of LOB% rather than an actual tally.

When you put the two together (LOB% divided by BABIP), the coefficient correlation jumps to 90 percent. Accordingly, the coefficient of determination or R² is 81 percent. In other words, more than four-fifths of the difference between ERA and FIP is due to LOB% and BABIP. As such, in addition to SO, BB, and HR rates, it makes sense to study LOB% and BABIP to understand why a pitcher's ERA may be better or worse than his FIP.

The MLB averages for LOB% and BABIP have been running at almost exactly 72 percent and .300, respectively, for several years. These percentages held true once again in 2010.

Plotting LOB% on the y-axis and BABIP on the x-axis for all 147 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2010, I created the following graph. As has become customary around these parts, I broke the graph into quadrants via the intersection of the LOB% and BABIP means. The pitchers in the northwest quadrant had high LOB% and low BABIP. Moving clockwise, the pitchers in the northeast quadrant had high LOB% and high BABIP, the hurlers in the southeast quadrant had low LOB% and high BABIP, and those in the southwest quadrant had low LOB% and low BABIP.

The numbers were lifted from FanGraphs in January. The BABIP data was subsequently recalculated, perhaps due to FanGraphs using an incorrect formula initially. While directionally correct, the BABIP used for this graph are generally about .005-.010 higher than those listed on the site now. The LOB% data matches exactly. You can download the spreadsheet with the applicable data here.


2010%20SP%20LOB%25%20and%20BABIP.png


As usual, I have identified the outliers in all four quadrants in the graph above. In addition, as shown below, I have created lists of leaders and laggards for both LOB% and BABIP. For perspective, the ranges on LOB% and BABIP were 59.5-82.7 percent and .238-.354, respectively.

Starting with LOB%, I highlighted the six pitchers with strand rates over 80 percent and compared 2010 with their career marks. All but Madison Bumgarner (who pitched just 10 innings prior to last season) have career LOB% that are well below their results in 2010. That said, I found it interesting that the career rates were all above the MLB norm of 72 percent.

Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Brian Duensing, Tim Hudson, and Tommy Hunter all posted career high LOB%. Halladay had only exceeded 75 percent twice before last year.

In addition to sharing high LOB%, the common thread among these pitchers is that they fared better with RISP than with the bases empty.

2010%20SP%20LOB%25%20%3E%2080%25.png


There were 11 pitchers with strand rates of 65 percent or lower. Excluding John Ely (who was a rookie), all but Luke Hochevar have career LOB% that are well above their results in 2010. Nonetheless, I found it as equally interesting as the observation from the leader board that the career rates were all at or below the MLB norm of 72 percent.

Nate Robertson, Tim Wakefield, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Jeff Francis, and Paul Maholm all posted career low LOB%. Scott Feldman, Jeremy Bonderman, and Tony Pena produced the second-lowest LOB% while Jamie Moyer had the third-lowest since he broke into the majors in 1986.

In addition to sharing low LOB%, the common thread among these pitchers is that they fared worse with RISP than with the bases empty.

2010%20SP%20LOB%25%20%3C%2065%25.png


Turning to BABIP, I spotlighted the 14 pitchers with averages under .270 and, like LOB%, compared 2010 with their career marks. All of these starters (including Armando Galarraga who actually posted a .261 BABIP based on FanGraphs' revised calculations) have career BABIP that are above their results in 2010. Of note, the career rates were all below the MLB norm of .300.

Matt Cain has never had a league-average BABIP and, in fact, has not exceeded the .278 he allowed in 2007.

Hudson and Hunter appear on the most favorable LOB% and BABIP lists. Moyer, on the other hand, was the only pitcher to appear on a leader and laggard board.

2010%20SP%20BABIP%20%3C%20.270.png


There were 16 pitchers with BABIP higher than .330. All of these pitchers have career BABIP that are below their results in 2010. In five cases, the career marks are slightly below the MLB norm of .300. The balance are all higher.

Maholm and Feldman appear on the least favorable LOB% and BABIP lists.

2010%20SP%20BABIP%20%3E%20.330.png


Here is the same graph presented with a best-fit trendline. As shown, it slopes from the northwest quadrant down and to the right through the intersection to the southeast quadrant. Generally speaking, the lower the BABIP, the higher the LOB%, and the higher BABIP, the lower the LOB%.


2010%20SP%20LOB%25%20and%20BABIP%20with%20trendline.png


The outliers in the NWQ were the pitchers who benefited the most from high LOB% and low BABIP. Here are the pitchers with the highest ratios of LOB% divided by BABIP:

2010%20Most%20Beneficial%20LOB%3ABABIP.png


Six of the above pitchers ranked in the top seven in ascending order in ERA minus FIP (E-F), meaning they had better ERAs than FIPs. The other four placed 11th, 17th, 27th, and 28th (out of 147 pitchers who threw at least 100 innings in 2010).

2010%20ERA%20Minus%20FIP%20Leaders.png


Conversely, the outliers in the SEQ were victimized the most by low LOB% and high BABIP. Here are the pitchers with the lowest ratios:

2010%20Least%20Beneficial%20LOB%3ABABIP.png


Seven of the above pitchers ranked in the top ten in descending order in E-F, meaning they had worse ERAs than FIPs. The other four placed 17th, 19th, 21st, and 22nd.

2010%20ERA%20Minus%20FIP%20Laggards%20.png


Interestingly, the outliers in the NEQ and SWQ neither benefited nor were victimized in the aggregate as the abnormal percentages in each category basically offset one another. As an example, Moyer, a SWQ outlier, had an ERA (4.84) minus FIP (4.98) of -0.14.

There are several takeaways embedded in this study, some of which are more obvious than others:

  • LOB% and BABIP explain over 80 percent of the difference between ERA and FIP.

  • High LOB% and low BABIP will deflate ERAs. Low LOB% and high BABIP will inflate ERAs.

  • LOB% appears to be more highly correlated with how a pitcher performs with RISP vs. the bases empty than bullpen support.

  • Pitchers with extreme LOB% and BABIP will tend to regress/rebound toward their career marks the following year but not necessarily all the way to the MLB averages.

    There are also a few questions: Is the discrepancy in performance between RISP and bases empty due to a pitcher's ability to work from the windup as opposed to the stretch? Do certain pitchers have an extra gear that they can employ when the going gets tough? Is there a self-fulfilling prophecy at play here, a Yogi-ism where pitchers perform well until they don't perform well? The answers to these questions could go a long way toward understanding how much skill or luck is involved in the year-to-year fluctuations in LOB%.

    Courtesy of Dave Studeman of The Hardball Times, you can read more about LOB% here and here.

    Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/03/graphing_the_pi.php

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  • Top games of the week: June 19 to 25

    Time to rank the five most exciting games of the past week.

     date	                    game	stars	 06-22	        Athletics @ Mets	***	box score 06-24	          Reds @ Orioles	**	box score 06-21	       Rockies @ Indians	**	box score 06-24	   Nationals @ White Sox	**	box score 06-22	        Angels @ Marlins	*	box score


    The Athletics @ Mets contest topping the above list is ranked 16th for the season. The May 18 game featuring the Yankees @ Orioles is still the best of the year.

    Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.

    Source: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/top-games-of-the-week-june-19-to-25/

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    Baseball Tonight Clubhouse

    Follow along as Baseball Tonight covers the Major League Baseball season.

    Source: http://espn.go.com/mlb/notebook/_/page/bbtn/baseball-tonight-clubhouse?campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

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    Stadium Pictures

    Bob Ruffolo got inside the new Yankee Stadium and post pictures of facility. I like the way they kept the look and feel of the old ballpark....


    Source: http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/031386.php

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    A-Rod reveals he's playing despite knee injury

    New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez revealed after Saturday's 8-3 victory over the Colorado Rockies that he has been playing through a right knee injury, which he suffered last Sunday night in Chicago.

    Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=6704385&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

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    Tigers notes, quotes from win over D'backs (Toronto Star)

    The Tigers scored first when Alex Avila roped a double to right-center in the second inning, scoring Victor Martinez from first.

    Source : Toronto Star

    Explore : Baseball Players, Sports, Victor Martinez

    Source: http://wik.io/info/US/273946444

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    Extension Candidate: Carlos Quentin

    Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MlbTradeRumors/~3/NGRSYZBPYjw/extension-candidate-carlos-quentin.html

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    Saturday, 25 June 2011

    Brent Burns, Brian Campbell traded on first day of draft

    The Sharks picked up a player with premium talent at the NHL draft and they don't have to wait for a teenager to mature to take advantage.


    Source: http://rssfeeds.usatoday.com/~r/UsatodaycomSports-TopStories/~3/1BBxLa_hGro/2011-06-25-trades-at-nhl-draft_n.htm

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    Sources: Wilpon chides Mets for not retaliating

    New York Mets chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon scolded the team for not seeking retribution against the Oakland Athletics for hitting Justin Turner in the first inning Thursday, according to sources.

    Source: http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/story?id=6704387&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

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    Realignment: What they're saying, and what you're saying

    The big topic of the week remains the talks between the owners and players about possible realignment of the divisions in Major League Baseball, first reported on Saturday by ESPN.com.

    The opinions are wide and varied: Some believe it's a good way for baseball to evolve.

    ...

    Read Full Post

    Source: http://baseball.about.com/b/2011/06/15/realignment-what-theyre-saying-and-what-youre-saying.htm

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    Nats may go to Davey Johnson as manager (AP)

    CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 24:  A.J. Pierzynski #12 of the Chicago White Sox reacts after hitting the game tying home run in the twelfth inning against the Washington Nationals on June 24, 2011 at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, Illinois.  (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)

    Their manager quit, and their interim skipper was ejected in his first game in the new role. The Washington Nationals keep winning anyway, and help could be on the way. General manager Mike Rizzo has talked to veteran Davey Johnson about replacing Jim Riggleman, who resigned Thursday. Interim manager John McLaren was thrown out in the eighth inning Friday night, but the Nationals still went on to a...


    Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/sports/rss/mlb/SIG=11j0gpbah/*http%3A//sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=310624104

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    Marlins' managerial merry-go-round keeps rolling alon

    Edwin Rodriguez abandoned ship on the Florida Marlins' sinking season on Sunday, unexpectedly resigning as manager.

    The Marlins, with an up-and-coming everyday roster and potentially great young pitchers, have lost 17 of 18 games in June amid injuries to key players such as Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez. In April and May, they looked like a contender. They're now in last place in the NL East.

    ...

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    Source: http://baseball.about.com/b/2011/06/19/marlins-managerial-merry-go-round-keeps-rolling-along.htm

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    Riggleman's bizarre resignation is considered career suicide

    In any job, there's management and there's labor. And in baseball, managers sometimes aren't really in management.

    That was evident to Washington Nationals manager Jim Riggleman, or, should we say, former manager Jim Riggleman. The Nationals have won 11 of their last 12 games, progressing to the cusp of contention in the National League East. Riggleman's contract was up at the end of the year. He wanted the team to pick up his 2012 contract option, and issued an ultimatum Thursday to GM Mike Rizzo, according to reports.

    ...

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    Source: http://baseball.about.com/b/2011/06/24/rigglemans-bizarre-resignation-considered-career-suicide.htm

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    Nationals win in extras for ejected McLaren

    Nationals win in extras for ejected McLaren

    Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_06_24_wasmlb_chamlb_1&mode=recap_away&c_id=was&partnerId=rss_mlb

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    NL Central Notes: Pujols, Valdes, Pirates

    Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MlbTradeRumors/~3/C2GZ3dmTJ8Q/nl-central-notes-pujols-pirates.html

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    Friday, 24 June 2011

    Pena, two big innings lead to victory

    Pena, two big innings lead to victory

    Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_06_24_arimlb_detmlb_1&mode=recap_away&c_id=ari&partnerId=rss_mlb

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    Lincecum strikes out 12, leads Giants (StarTribune.com)

    Tim Lincecum struck out 12 in seven superb innings, helping the San Francisco Giants beat the Minnesota Twins 2-1 Thursday.

    Source : StarTribune.com

    Explore : Baseball Players, Minnesota Twins, MLB, San Francisco Giants, Sports

    Source: http://wik.io/info/US/273579822

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    I Figured Out How To Win The MVP

    Source: http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/10/i-figured-out-how-to-win-mvp.html

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    Broxton strikes out side in rehab appearance

    Broxton strikes out side in rehab appearance

    Source: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110623&content_id=20926628&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb&partnerId=rss_mlb

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    Lincecum strikes out 12, leads Giants (StarTribune.com)

    Tim Lincecum struck out 12 in seven superb innings, helping the San Francisco Giants beat the Minnesota Twins 2-1 Thursday.

    Source : StarTribune.com

    Explore : Baseball Players, Minnesota Twins, MLB, San Francisco Giants, Sports

    Source: http://wik.io/info/US/273579822

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    43-1 in 2011, Djokovic still appears to be forgotten man

    The hottest man in the sport isn't blazing a trail on grass. At least not with pundits. Among 18 experts and ex-pros at ESPN and Sports Illustrated ...


    Source: http://rssfeeds.usatoday.com/~r/UsatodaycomSports-TopStories/~3/InqpHoUvJvQ/2011-06-23-wimbledon-novak-djokovic_n.htm

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    Cashman: Reyes To Yankees 'Not Going To Happen'

    Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/MlbTradeRumors/~3/Rtwldlh61ok/cashman-reyes-to-yankees-not-going-to-happen.html

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    Celebrate the games

    Museum visitors get a taste of cricket?s relationship to baseball in Hall of Fame?s new exhibit

    Museum News
    Three centuries of cricket bats are included in the cricket exhibit, Swinging Away. (Marylebone Cricket Club)

    The chatter was like that of any group of baseball fans ? exchanges focusing on batting, pitching and fielding.

    But on Saturday at the Baseball Hall of Fame, many of those fans were talking about baseball's distant cousin, cricket, and the Museum's new Swinging Away exhibit that celebrates the relationship of the two sports.

    Swinging Away: How Baseball and Cricket Connect opened in April at the Hall of Fame, which will display the exhibit ? created by the Marylebone Cricket Club of London with assistance from the Baseball Hall of Fame ? through February. Events celebrating the exhibit on Saturday in Cooperstown ? and continuing on Sunday ? feature round-table discussions of the history of both sports as well as demonstrations of cricket.

    "It has been a great pleasure to put this exhibition together, but it would have been a one-sided endeavor without the enthusiastic support of the staff at the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum," said Beth Hise, lead curator of the exhibition, based in Sydney, Australia as lead curator of the Historic Houses Trust, and author of the book by the same name, Swinging Away. "It has also been a privilege to explore cricket in America through the collection of the CC Morris Library in Haverford, which the generous support of their staff. I hope Swinging Away brings some new discoveries and interesting stories to the visitors at the Hall of Fame."

    Cricket evolved as the first team sport in America, before giving way in popularity to baseball and other games. George Kirsch, a professor of history at Manhattan College and one of Saturday's roundtable panelists, estimates that as many as 10,000 Americans played cricket before the Civil War ? an astounding number for a largely agrarian society.

    "Cricket was America's first team sport," said Kirsch, has penned several books about the subject. "Why did baseball overtake it in popularity? One reason is that Americans would simply not accept an English game as the National Pastime."

    Worldwide, however, cricket continues to prosper, and the game is generally considered the second-most popular sport on the planet, behind only soccer. Paul Hensley, president of the C.C. Morris Cricket Library at Haverford College, which has loaned several artifacts to the Swinging Away exhibit, suggests that another challenge for cricket in America was the exclusivity of the teams.

    "You can look in the Swinging Away exhibit and see ? from the photos of the teams more than 100 years ago ? that the game was played by people of uniform ethnicity," Hensley said. "It became difficult for other people to connect to cricket."

    But Lloyd Jodah, president of American College Cricket, believes the ethnicity of the game is now helping grow the sport in America.

    "When immigrants came to this country 100 years ago, they wanted to be Americans," said Jodah, who moved to the United States from Guyana in 1982 and is now working to support cricket's popularity among colleges. "The best way to do that was to play the American game: Baseball.

    "But now, the game of cricket is making a comeback, and it's a comeback based on ethnicity. That's a strength of the game in this day and age."

    Swinging Away reveals some remarkable surprises, dispels some cherished convictions and sets out for the first time to explore these two great bat and ball sports side by side. The collection includes uniforms and equipment worn by the biggest names of each sport, including as Derek Jeter and Andrew Flintoff, Bengie Molina and Adam Gilchrist, Kumar Sangakkara, Paul Collingwood, Robin Wallace and Charlotte Edwards and Shahid Afridi.

    Swinging Away is featured on the third floor of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, and admission to the exhibition is included with Museum admission. For more information on Swinging Away, please click here.

    Craig Muder is the director of communications for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum 

    Source: http://baseballhall.org/news/museum-news/celebrate-games

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    Thursday, 23 June 2011

    Comparing 2011 Division Projections

    Last year before the 2010 season started I looked at how a couple different projection systems saw the season playing out. With this season just one day old, I wanted to do the same for the 2011 projections. Here I take a graphical look at the number of wins six systems project for every team and plot those out for each division separately. This gives a good picture of the range of predictions and how much consensus there is across systems.

    I used five projection systems for which I could get win totals and the Vegas regular season over/under win totals. I grabbed the Marcel, Bill James and Cairo projections complied by the folks at RLYW who ran the player-level projections for those systems through the Diamond Mind Simulator to get win totals. I also used THT's Oliver and BPro's Pecota projections (as of March 30th). The Vegas lines are from Pinnacle Sports, so they are not really Vegas's numbers but the offshore ones (also as of March 30th).

    AL_East_2011.png

    All of the projections systems see a pretty clear ordering of the five AL east teams, with a slight disagreement in the cellar dweller Toronto (Marcel, Cairo, Bill James, Pecota) or Baltimore (THT, Vegas). I was surprised to see Baltimore come out on top of Toronto in so many projections. Although not a difference in ordering, THT is not nearly as fond of Tampa Bay as the other systems are. And interestingly Vegas has a lower win total for the Yankees than any other system, I always assumed that there would be a pro-Yankees bias among bettors.

    AL_Central_2011.png

    All six projections see the AL Central as pretty clearly two-tiered — with Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit competing for the division title and then Cleveland and KC a solid ten wins behind. Though everyone likes Cleveland more than Kansas City. As in the AL East THT has some outlier values, projecting more extreme values for Detroit, Cleveland and Kansas City

    AL_West_2011.png

    The AL West is similarly two-tiered — with Texas and Oakland at the top, and Los Angeles and Seattle bringing up the rear. There is only one disagreement in the ordering with THT thinking Seattle is above Los Angeles. THT also likes the top two teams much more than the other systems do. Vegas is pretty high on LA, seeing them just a slight step behind the Texas and Oakland. If you have faith in the projection systems over the bettors and bookmakers an under on the Angels is a clear play.

    NL_East_2011.png

    There is a farily well agreed upon ordering in the NL East,.THT is again something of an outlier projecting New York and Florida as fairly even while everyone else clearly prefers Florida, and is the only system that likes Atlanta over Philadelphia to win the division. If you trust the projections systems over Vegas this division offers two opportunities: the under on Philly and the over on New York.

    NL_Central_2011.png

    Sorry about the color choice here. Both St. Louis and Cincinnati deserve red, but their lines are very close so to keep things distinct. So I went with black for Cincinnati and red for St. Louis. This is another two-tiered division with four teams fairly close at the top (though Chicago is at the bottom of the top tier in most systems) and then two bottom dwellers. Like the AL Central this is projected to be a pretty competitive conference. Again THT is something of an outlier liking Cincinnati and St. Louis much more than the other systems.

    NL_West_2011.png

    Five of the six systems like San Francisco to repeat at NL West champions, with Marcel the lone dissenter picking Los Angeles. THT is again the most bullish about the favorite's win total, as it is the only system projecting more than 90 wins for San Francisco. Vegas likes Colorado by a fairly big margin compared to the projection systems, so there is another play if you are so inclined.

    Source: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2011/03/comparing_2011.php

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